Several Thoughts on the LCD Core Panel Industry Chain and the Development of Glass Substrates (Wang Dacheng)
Release date:
2018-01-10
Several Thoughts on the LCD Core Panel Industry Chain and Glass Substrate Development; Review and Enlightenment of Display Device Development 1. Development History of CRT The advent of cathode ray tubes ushered in the development of human display technology. ① Black and white TV: Appeared in the 1940s, developed in the 1950s, and became mainstream in the 1960s. Declined in the 1980s ② Color display: Appeared in the 1950s, developed in the 1960s, and became popular in the 1970s. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, it ushered in the first wave of popularization and development in the Third World. By the late 1980s and early 1990s, in China, South Korea, and Southeast Asia
Some Thoughts on the LCD Core Panel Industry Chain and the Development of Glass Substrates
Review and Enlightenment of Display Device Development
1 CRT Development History
The advent of the cathode ray tube ushered in the development of human display technology.
①Black and white TV: Appeared in the 40s developed in the 50s became mainstream in the 60s. Declined in the 80s ②Color display: Appeared in the 50s
Developed in the 60s Became popular in the 70s. In the late 70s and early 80s witnessed the first wave of popularization and development in the Third World. By the end of the 80s and early 90s with the development in China, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, CRT
displays experienced explosive growth. ③CRT development in China: Introduced in the early 80s and a second large-scale introduction in the late 80s, and capacity increased in the late 90s, making China's CRT
production reach 1.4 billion units. CRT shrunk and disappeared in developed regions like Europe and America. ④By the end of the 90s when CRT experienced explosive growth in developing countries (such as China and South Korea), LCD technology entered an era of facing development bottlenecks and preparing for breakthroughs, and industrial transfer and transformation began. ⑤In the mid-to-late 90s,
CRT showed a clear Olympic cycle pattern in production and sales, with price wars. After the year, the (size) bottleneck of LCD technology was broken, and LCD replaced CRT became more obvious, and CRT
showed seasonal sales fluctuations each year. After the Olympic cycle, CRT entered a period of decline,
2000 and after the year, it entered a period of rapid shrinkage. LCD displays became mainstream and dominated the market. Taking TV as an example,
2004 CRT reached 1.6 billion units in 2004,
2008 while LCD reached 2.21 billion units in 2010, and CRT
was less than 30,000
units. LCD Development ①LCD: Began to be applied in the 80s, but was hampered by the inability to break through process size limitations and could not compete with CRT Subsequently, plasma displays also faced the same difficulties due to process size technology limitations. ②After 2000 rapid development. After 2005 began to completely replace CRT. ③LCD: Originated in Japan, rapidly grew in South Korea. The industry scale is in South Korea and Taiwan. Currently, the four major panel companies are: Samsung Electronics, LGD AU Optronics, and Chimei
2 ④In China: In 2002
Shanghai Radio and Television, BOE, and CSOT began research and development and construction of 4.5th generation and 5th generation lines. Around 2005 scale was formed. After 2008 rapid expansion according to the international manufacturing development model.
The table below shows the current situation of domestic panel companies. ⑤LCD and CRT different development paths in China: Technology introduction
Independent R&D technology, Supplier market
Highly competitive market + Intellectual property risks + Explosive development driven by price and cost competition, which is a result of an incomplete industry and industrial chain. According to data from the second quarter of 2011, the four major panel companies all reported losses: Samsung Electronics 12.8 billion yuan, LG Display 2.9 billion yuan, AU Optronics 24 billion yuan, and Chimei 29 billion yuan. During the same period, the price of LCD glass substrates decreased by less than 20% Enlightenment from the Development of Display Devices
⑤液晶显示和CRT在中国的发展的不同：
引进技术 自主研发技术，
供方市场 激烈竞争市场+知识产权风险+价格成本挤占式的爆发式发展，是产业及产业链不完善下的发展。
根据2011年2季度有关数据，四大面板企业均报亏损：三星电子12.8亿元，LG显示2.9亿元，友达光电24亿元，奇美29亿元。而同期液晶玻璃基板降价不足20%。
3．显示器件发展的几点启示
Core industries without a complete industrial chain or with monopolized supply are passive.
The entry of "Made in China" signifies both the maturity of the industry and a reshuffling of the market competitive landscape.
③ In the process of establishing a commercial alliance supply and demand industrial chain, critical components such as glass substrates ,
still face many new challenges in terms of technology, industrial maturity, and talent.
LCD display industrial chain and its commanding heights
1 . LCD display supply chain
Cost distribution of LCD display supply chain
TFT-LCD Upstream supporting components of the panel industrial chain mainly include: Glass substrate, polarizer, color filter, backlight, liquid crystal materials, and driver IC 。
Commanding heights of the panel industrial chain: As an LCD display device, the panel is undoubtedly the core, but the monopolized raw material supply is the embodiment of the industrial chain's interests and competitiveness, making it the commanding height.
2 . Glass substrate supply market conditions and industrial distribution
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Generation
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Number of lines
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Distribution
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Time Interval
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5G
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9 Lines
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Xianyang 4 Lines
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2008 Year—2011 Year
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Zhangjiagang 3 Lines
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6G
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8 Lines
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Hefei 6 Lines
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2008 Year—2011 Year 4 Lines
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2012 Year—2014 Year 2 Lines
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8.5G
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24 Lines
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Guangdong 12 Lines
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2008 Year—2011 Year 8 Lines
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2012 Year—2014 Year 4 Lines
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Zhangjiagang 8 Lines
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2012 Year—2014 Year
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Hefei 4 Lines
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2012 Year—2014 Year
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10G
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2 Lines
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2014 Year—2015 Year
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By 2015 ,
by then, 43 were built LCD glass substrate production lines and put into operation, with a capacity of 4644 million square meters, accounting for 53.15% of the total domestic demand approximately, continuously maintaining the top position domestically and reaching third in the world.
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3 . LCD display industrial chain panel strategy
① China's panels: Three factors lead to a bottleneck where panel enterprises, once built, find it difficult to achieve sustainable development.
Huge investment costs in the panel industry (G5 panel line investment is 13-15 billion yuan, G8.5 investment is 25-35 billion yuan),
Panel prices continuously declining (prices of main specification panels since 2010 May have continuously fallen by over 40% to date )
Corresponding key component materials rely on monopolistic supply from international giant enterprises, etc.
Therefore, establishing a domestic supply industrial chain alliance and focusing on key breakthroughs are necessary to return to a competitive advantage similar to the CRT era.
② Developing high-end supply chains, establishing industrial chain alliances, and breaking international supply chain monopolies are fundamental to the survival and development of LCD displays.
③ The business model of the industrial chain focuses on using industry-university-research collaboration as a link (to avoid direct conflict with existing supply chains), jointly exploring ways to improve and enhance, and forming new cost and technological advantages.
④ Utilize alliances and industry-university-research cooperation to cultivate talent.
Supply and demand of LCD panels and glass substrate materials
1 . Glass substrate production line status and supply situation
2 . China's glass substrate development status
2010 Year glass substrate lines: G5 : 6-8 lines; G6 : 4 Lines
2011 Year glass substrate lines: G5 : 10 lines; G6 : 6 lines G8.5 : 1-2 Lines
2006 Year started, '07 Year construction, '08 Year, Rainbow realized the first G5 glass substrate production line producing the first qualified product.
2009 Year, Rainbow expanded to build 6 G5 lines and 6 G6 lines glass substrate production lines, and Hebei Dongxu announced the construction of glass substrate lines in Zhengzhou, Henan.
2010-2011 Year, production lines were successively built and put into operation, and products underwent user certification, forming a certain supply capacity. It is estimated that by 2011 year-end, monthly supply can reach 150-200 thousand pieces
2011-2013 G8.5 formed glass substrate 12 Lines.
3 Problems Facing the Development of Chinese Glass Substrates
The main challenges are in two aspects: market and technological breakthroughs, and patent risks.
The supply model between the industrial chains still needs to be explored.
Technological Breakthrough
Characteristics of the Glass Substrate Industry and Support Needed for Development
1 Technical Characteristics of Glass Substrate Production
There are three main technologies for producing glass substrates:
Float production, overflow down-draw method, and slot down-draw method.
Thinning: Thickness 0.7mm 0.63mm 0.5mm Even thinner 0.4 or 0.3mm or even 0.1mm 。
Glass quality: Defect requirements need to be improved by an order of magnitude or more,
Appearance: Particles and scratches, etc.
2 Difficulties Faced by Domestic Glass Substrate Production
In addition to the dual pressure of international monopoly suppliers' intellectual property protection and technological breakthroughs, the strategic agreements between monopoly suppliers and panel manufacturers, and the supply chains that have already occupied various specifications, make it extremely difficult for domestic glass substrates to enter the market and obtain certification.
It is difficult to certify products, which makes it difficult to achieve scale, and the more difficult it is to achieve scale, the more difficult it is to break the existing monopoly supply pattern.
3 Suggestions for the Development of Domestic Glass Substrates
①Transform the traditional industry-academia-research-application model into an integrated system with academia and research as the link, forming a mechanism in research and talent cultivation. Technological innovation is mainly driven by enterprises, but talent must be cultivated by schools.
②In order to obtain a competitive advantage at the commanding heights of the panel industry chain, research and promote the domestic formation mechanism of the industry chain alliance. The ultimate industrial competition is a comprehensive domestic supply breakthrough.
③Enhance forward-looking R&D, including assembly manufacturing, to seize the leading edge, and leverage the current development of LCD panels, and the national key support for the next generation, namely OLED display technology R&D and industrial chain technology R&D and industrialization promotion. 10 years later, it may really be the era of OLED replacing LCD 时代。
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